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23 Nov 2024

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Corn prices were pushed lower on the week by bigger stocks in the WASDE report than had been expected but the sell-off on the week was less than some analysts had expected which may mean that there is still some strength in corn prices. The feeling in the trade this holiday weekend is that corn prices will trade in a range for the next while – until we see some harvest problems in South America or lower plantings in North America, both of which may never happen. Of course, in South America there is always the risk of truckers strikes, port strikes, etc that can excite the trade and push prices higher.

With only a couple of days after the WASDE before the long weekend, nothing earth shattering happened in the US soybean business. Everyone is still watching South America, Brazil in particular, to see if the expected giant soybean crop is harvested. There has been talk in the trade about concern over Brazil soybean crop yields – any drop in actual yields on the harvest could be a good way to push soybean prices higher.

There were worries about the very, very, very cold weather expected in the wheat belt of the US this week and how we may see higher winter frost kill numbers, but this still did not keep prices from sipping a little lower as all international wheat prices moved lower. There was the comment in US reports that wheat use in animal feed is increasing as feed wheat looks to be able to replace corn in rations in some areas of the country – it is all just price. Like corn, traders seem to feel that wheat prices will move in a narrow range over the next few weeks just waiting for some news.

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t	$36/37.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$36/37.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t	$37/38.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$45/46.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$44/45.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$45/47.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$44/45.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Down $2.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$49/50.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$48/49.00	Up $2.00	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$28/29.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$42/43.00	Steady	X
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t	Closed		X
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t	Closed		X

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to China: Panamax	$42/43.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to India: Panamax	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis)	$40/41.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$42/43.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$55/56.00	Steady	X

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off	$44/45.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off	$41/44.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: Panamax	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Libya: 25/30,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax	$40/41.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$43/44.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: Panamax	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: Panamax	$39/40.00	Up $3.00	X
Brazil to Japan: Panamax	$40/41.00	Up $3.00	X
Brazil to Europe: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Iran: Panamax	$47/48.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Spain: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	X

Australia to China: Panamax – round trip	$16/17.00	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip	$41/41.50	Up $2.00	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax	$45/46.00	Up $2.00	X

Ukraine to China: Panamax	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax	$44/45.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to India, Panamax	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$35/36.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis)	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$54/55.00	Up $7.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch)	$45/46.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	1339	Up 6	X
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	1242	Down 285	X
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	1944	Up 282	X
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)	1217	Up 73	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	751	Up 32	x

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2021/May 2021

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf	USD 284>>272 new crop	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf	USD 282/285	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 274/277	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 279/282	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 288/291	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 280/282	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 266/269	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 272/274	X

Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 262/264	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD 245/248	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 248/251	X

Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 247/250	X
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 272/275	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 241>>227 new crop	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 270>>230 new crop	X
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic	USD 273/275	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 268/271	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 273/276	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 257/260	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 228>>212 new crop	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 337/340	X

Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 507/510	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 532/535	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot	USD 546/549 spot	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 471>>454 new crop	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot	USD 540/543 spot	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 482>>459 new crop	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 538>>533	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 537>>506 new crop	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 514/516 new crop	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 557/560	X

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 800/820 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 265/270 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 325>>315 m/t	x

While corn prices did move a little lower on the week, corn by product prices did not. According to trade reports, with the lower production level of ethanol there seems to be a tightening of supply for all export corn byproducts. So, add a little shortness of supply to increasing international container freight rates and higher oil prices and you find CNF buyer looking at paying steady to higher prices.

USA domestic prices for DDGS, corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were all higher this. DDGS looked to be up by USD 5 to 10 m/t with CGF up by about USD 8 m/t and CGM up by USD 10 to 15 m/t for barge loads to NOLA.

Trade reports were saying that it is almost impossible to get any shipment of DDGS or corn gluten meal out of the US before May/June. The US Grains Council report this week mentioned that February March DDGS prices are at about a USD 50 m/t premium to DDGS from October 2021 to the end of the year. So, looks like there is some hope for lower prices just for 7 months away.

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

Australian MBM 45% protein

Australian MBM 50% protein

Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia

USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia

USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia

USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade

USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 540/550 m/t CNF China

USD 560/720 to Indonesia

USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

USD 980/1,000 m/t CNF Asia

With China and Chinese buyers being out of the export animal protein business for Chinese New Year, business for export is very calm this week. There had been some talk of meat and bone meal prices moving higher to Asia this week but, with no business, no price increases were seen.

However, in Australia, tight supply has pushed local prices higher and this should move into the export business one there is new demand. Trade publications feel that there is a good chance of higher export prices from Australia and perhaps New Zealand.

USA feather meal prices are said to be steady to higher this week as demand remains very good. US meat and bone meal and poultry meal prices are steady and look to stay like that until soymeal prices decide to make a change.

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

A quiet week with China closed for New Year on the 12^th, so no new buying activity from there. Also, with only the dregs left to sell from the last fishing and most producers not taking any more advance orders, then we can all sit quietly and wait for the next exciting news.

The exploratory cruise for biomass analysis for the South of Peru is underway --- who knows but we may even get some fish landed in the South this year. With there expected to be no change in the rule banning fishing inside the 5 mile limit, no one is getting too excited about fishing in the South. Looking at numbers published by MSI Ceres this week, there really has not been much in the way of landings in the South since back in 2011. Other than 2020 when landing were zero, the 5 year prior had trouble getting over 50,000 m/t in total catch, which is only about 12,000 m/t of fishmeal --- not too important in the scale of things. (except to the fishmeal producers in the South)

Speculation about the next Northern quota is still in the 2.5 to 3.0 million m/t level, which is well within the range of quotas seen over the past 15 years.

MSI Ceres was also mentioning this week how difficult it is to find containers and shipping positions for fishmeal exports. Container rates are moving higher, congestion charges are being added. With most of the prebooked business for the next fishing season being done on a CNF destination price basis then some shippers may find that they underpriced the freight component and will have to absorb the higher freight costs ---- costs which could easily move even higher.

There has been no change in Peru fishmeal prices this week as buyers are out of the market for New Year and sellers have nothing to sell.

PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,720
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,465
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,490
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,540
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,780

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port

65/66 protein	1350/1370 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1430/1450 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1500/1520 m/t	1470/1490 m/t
67% protein 120 TVN	1550/1570 m/t	1520/1540 m/t
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t	1570/1590 m/t
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1650/1670 m/t	1600/1620 m/t

Fish oil, crude bulk	1650/1750
Fish oil, crude drums	1700/1800
Fish oil, flexi tank	1750/1850
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	1900/2000

INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees, or affiliates.

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